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Lost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain

Publicado en:Climate Research. cr01757- - 2025-09-11 (), DOI: 10.3354/cr01757

Autores: Blanco-Domínguez, M., García-Barreda, S., Sánchez, S., & Serrano-Notivoli, R.

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Resumen

Spain is the world's leading producer of black truffle Tuber melanosporum Vittad. because of a distinct combination of edaphic properties and climatic conditions within the growing season. Relatively cold winters and moderate summer precipitation are key for a productive harvest; however, climate projections foresee a spatially-diverse warming, favoring extreme temperatures and drought conditions which will affect the future of the species’ distribution. We used a combination of three machine-learning-based species distribution modeling methods: maxent, random forest, and boosted regression trees, to estimate the current and future habitat potentiality in mainland Spain, based on historical observations and a collection of environmental variables, previously demonstrated as critical parameters for the modeling of black truffle presence. Results showed a notable change in the distribution under two future scenarios, with a total loss between -22 and -32% of the current habitat, especially in zones with hot temperatures and low precipitation. This was partially compensated with the colonization of new areas (+25%) in colder and more humid climates. Overall, the most changing distributions in future scenarios were associated with maximum summer temperatures, summer precipitation, elevation and edaphic pH. While significant differences were found in the contribution of the predictors to the three models, their results of the spatial distribution were similar. By illustrating the climate-driven redistribution of a high-value crop, our findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological modeling into agricultural policy and land-use planning to ensure long-term resilience of rural economies.

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