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Garcia-Barreda, SergiAuthorSanchez, SergioAuthor

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September 25, 2025
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Lost and gained: climate-induced redistribution of black truffle in Spain

Publicated to:Climate Research. cr01757- - 2025-09-11 (), DOI: 10.3354/cr01757

Authors: Blanco-Domínguez, M., García-Barreda, S., Sánchez, S., & Serrano-Notivoli, R.

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Abstract

Spain is the world's leading producer of black truffle Tuber melanosporum Vittad. because of a distinct combination of edaphic properties and climatic conditions within the growing season. Relatively cold winters and moderate summer precipitation are key for a productive harvest; however, climate projections foresee a spatially-diverse warming, favoring extreme temperatures and drought conditions which will affect the future of the species’ distribution. We used a combination of three machine-learning-based species distribution modeling methods: maxent, random forest, and boosted regression trees, to estimate the current and future habitat potentiality in mainland Spain, based on historical observations and a collection of environmental variables, previously demonstrated as critical parameters for the modeling of black truffle presence. Results showed a notable change in the distribution under two future scenarios, with a total loss between -22 and -32% of the current habitat, especially in zones with hot temperatures and low precipitation. This was partially compensated with the colonization of new areas (+25%) in colder and more humid climates. Overall, the most changing distributions in future scenarios were associated with maximum summer temperatures, summer precipitation, elevation and edaphic pH. While significant differences were found in the contribution of the predictors to the three models, their results of the spatial distribution were similar. By illustrating the climate-driven redistribution of a high-value crop, our findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological modeling into agricultural policy and land-use planning to ensure long-term resilience of rural economies.

Keywords

Aprendizaje automáticoDistribución espacialIoneidad de hábitatModelizaciónModelos climáticosTuber melanosporum

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Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Climate Research due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q2 (Segundo Cuartil), in the category . Notably, the journal is positioned en el Cuartil Q4 for the agency WoS (JCR) in the category Environmental Sciences.