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25 de mayo de 2026
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Perspectives: Effect of global change drivers on carbon fluxes and resilience of European forests

Publicado en: FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT. 616 123844- - 2026-05-25, DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123844

Autores:

Gharun, Mana; Angove, Charlotte; Migliavacca, Mirco; Zhou, Yu; Buckeridge, Kate; Branquinho, Cristina; Collalti, Alessio; Nybakken, Line; Zhiyanski, Miglena; Sarginci, Murat; Koc, Ismail; Donmez, Abdullah Huseyin; Lopez-Ballesteros, Ana; Godbold, Douglas; Machacova, Katerina; Guidi, Claudia; Koren, Gerbrand; Ostonen, Ivika; Sell, Marili; Pers-Kamczyc, Emilia; Kamczyc, Jacek; Aslan, Toprak; Preece, Catherine; Prikaziuk, Egor; Ozkan, Ufuk; Vitali, Valentina; Havrdova, Alena; Grunzweig, Jose M; Tomelleri, Enrico; Ullah, Sami; Stoeva, Lora; Nestola, Enrica; Vanguelova, Elena; Guerrieri, Rossella
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Afiliaciones

Agrifood Inst Aragon IA2 UNIZAR, Zaragoza, Spain - Autor o Coautor
Agrifood Res & Technol Ctr Aragon CITA, CSIC, EEAD, Dept Agr & Forest Syst & Environm, Zaragoza, Spain - Autor o Coautor
BOKU, Vienna, Austria - Autor o Coautor
Bulgarian Acad Sci, Sofia, Bulgaria - Autor o Coautor
Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Inst, Dept Ecosyst Trace Gas Exchange, Brno, Czech Republic - Autor o Coautor
Czech Univ Life Sci Prague, Prague, Czech Republic - Autor o Coautor
Duzce Univ, Duzce, Turkiye - Autor o Coautor
European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy - Autor o Coautor
Forest Res, Farnham, England - Autor o Coautor
Free Univ Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy - Autor o Coautor
Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fac Agr Food & Environm, Rehovot, Israel - Autor o Coautor
IRTA, Sustainabil Biosyst Programme, Cabrils, Spain - Autor o Coautor
Izmir Katip Celebi Univ, Izmir, Turkiye - Autor o Coautor
Luxembourg Inst Sci & Technol, Luxembourg, Luxembourg - Autor o Coautor
Natl Res Council Italy CNR ISAFOM, Inst Agr & Forestry Syst Mediterranean, Forest Modelling Lab, Via Madonna Alta 128, I-06128 Perugia, Italy - Autor o Coautor
Natl Res Council Italy CNR, Res Inst Terr Ecosyst IRET, Lecce, Italy - Autor o Coautor
Norwegian Univ Life Sci, As, Norway - Autor o Coautor
Polish Acad Sci, Inst Dendrol, Kornik, Poland - Autor o Coautor
Poznan Univ Life Sci, Poznan, Poland - Autor o Coautor
Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland - Autor o Coautor
Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland - Autor o Coautor
Univ Birmingham, Birmingham, England - Autor o Coautor
Univ Bologna, Dept Agr & Food Sci, Bologna, Italy - Autor o Coautor
Univ Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland - Autor o Coautor
Univ Hradec Kralove, Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic - Autor o Coautor
Univ Lisbon, CHANGE Global Change & Sustainabil Inst, Fac Sci, Lisbon, Portugal - Autor o Coautor
Univ Lisbon, Fac Sci, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Environm Changes, Lisbon, Portugal - Autor o Coautor
Univ Munster, Dept Geosci, Munster, Germany - Autor o Coautor
Univ Tartu, Tartu, Estonia - Autor o Coautor
Univ Twente, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands - Autor o Coautor
Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands - Autor o Coautor
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Resumen

European forests play a central role for meeting the EU's climate targets, but the declining carbon sink has left them trailing behind climate goals. Reversing this trend requires a systematic understanding of forest responses to shifting global change drivers, explicitly integrating aboveground and belowground processes. Here, we provide our perspective on the effects of multiple global change drivers on ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes (including both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) and the resilience of these fluxes, based on direct flux observations (e.g., from eddy covariance towers). First, we present changes in several key drivers (warming, drought, atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, winter warming, excess precipitation, late frost), over recent decades, some of which (winter warming, windthrow, excess precipitation, late frost) have received limited attention in forest carbon assessments. Some of these-such as winter warming-are expected to become increasingly frequent in the future. We then explicitly summarize how the four (more-frequently studied) key drivers affect carbon fluxes (i.e., CO2 and CH4 fluxes). The response of the net CO2 sink (i.e., net ecosystem productivity) is presented through its two component processes: gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). When considered individually, global change drivers often produce relatively predictable responses in forest carbon fluxes: warming tends to enhance both GPP and Reco, elevated atmospheric CO2 generally stimulates photosynthesis, and moderate nitrogen (N) inputs can enhance productivity in N-limited systems. However, when drivers interact, ecosystem responses frequently become non-linear, amplified, or even reversed relative to single-driver expectations. For example, warming alone may extend the growing season and increase GPP, but in combination with drought, elevated vapor pressure deficit suppresses stomatal conductance, reduces GPP, and can increase respiration losses during rewetting events. Similarly, the positive effect of rising CO2 on productivity may be constrained by nutrient limitation or drought stress, while historical N deposition can temporarily sustain CO2 fertilization effects but also increase vulnerability to climatic stressors. Under compound disturbances-such as drought followed by extreme precipitation or winter warming-ecosystem respiration pulses and structural damage can further reduce net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Collectively, these findings indicate that forest carbon dynamics cannot be reliably inferred from single-driver responses alone; instead, interacting drivers shape ecosystem resilience through feedbacks among physiological processes, soil biogeochemistry, and disturbance regimes, often leading to thresholds or tipping points in carbon sink strength.
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Palabras clave

Air pollutionBosquesCambio climáticoCiclo del carbonoClimate actionClimate extremesClimate-changeDroughtEcosistemas forestalesEcosystem respirationEctomycorrhizal communitiesElevated co2Greenhouse-gasGross primary productivityHeatwaveLong-term impactsNitrogen depositionProgressive nitrogen limitationResiliencia forestalRespirationRespiration ecosystemSeminatural vegetationSoil respiration

Indicios de calidad

Impacto bibliométrico. Análisis de la aportación y canal de difusión

El trabajo ha sido publicado en la revista FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT debido a la progresión y el buen impacto que ha alcanzado en los últimos años, según la agencia WoS (JCR), se ha convertido en una referencia en su campo. En el año de publicación del trabajo, 2026, se encontraba en la posición 11/92, consiguiendo con ello situarse como revista Q1 (Primer Cuartil), en la categoría Forestry.

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Impacto y visibilidad social

Desde la dimensión de Influencia o adopción social, y tomando como base las métricas asociadas a las menciones e interacciones proporcionadas por agencias especializadas en el cálculo de las denominadas “Métricas Alternativas o Sociales”, podemos destacar a fecha 2026-11-15:

  • El uso, desde el ámbito académico evidenciado por el indicador de la agencia Altmetric referido como agregaciones realizadas por el gestor bibliográfico personal Mendeley, nos da un total de: 16.
  • La utilización de esta aportación en marcadores, bifurcaciones de código, añadidos a listas de favoritos para una lectura recurrente, así como visualizaciones generales, indica que alguien está usando la publicación como base de su trabajo actual. Esto puede ser un indicador destacado de futuras citas más formales y académicas. Tal afirmación es avalada por el resultado del indicador “Capture” que arroja un total de: 14 (PlumX).

Con una intencionalidad más de divulgación y orientada a audiencias más generales podemos observar otras puntuaciones más globales como:

  • El Score total de Altmetric: 4.
  • El número de menciones en la red social X (antes Twitter): 5 (Altmetric).

Es fundamental presentar evidencias que respalden la plena alineación con los principios y directrices institucionales en torno a la Ciencia Abierta y la Conservación y Difusión del Patrimonio Intelectual. Un claro ejemplo de ello es:

Siguiendo con el impacto social del trabajo, es importante enfatizar el hecho de que, por su contenido, puede ser asignado a la línea de interés del ODS 13 - Climate Action, con una probabilidad del 58% según el algoritmo mBERT desarrollado por Aurora University.
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Análisis de liderazgo de los autores institucionales

Este trabajo se ha realizado con colaboración internacional, concretamente con investigadores de: Austria; Bulgaria; Czech Republic; Estonia; Finland; Germany; Israel; Italy; Luxembourg; Netherlands; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Switzerland; Turkey; United Kingdom.

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Reconocimientos ligados al ítem

This article is based upon work from COST Action CA21138 (CLEANFOREST) "Joint effects of CLimate Extremes and Atmospheric depositioN on European FORESTs", supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) . CG acknowledges funding from Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. 229393) ; YZ ac-knowledges funding from Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant NO. 220291) ; KM acknowledges funding from the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR within the LU-INTER-EXCELLENCE II (2022-2029) program (Grant No. LUC23162) ; ALB was supported by RYC2023-043829-I from MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and FSE + . We thank Florian Stahl and Nora Fried for their editorial support with preparing the manuscript. TA acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through a Humboldt Research Fellowship. JMG acknowledges funding from Israel Science Foundation (Grant No. 1796/19) . IO and MS were supported by the Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Land Use (TK232) . CB was funded by CE3C - Center for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes through Fundaca o para a Cie ncia e Tecnologia of Portugal [project UIDB/00329/2025] and CHANGE-Global Change and Sustainability Institute [proj-ect LA/P/0121/2020] .
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