Modeling Heterogeneous Direct and Third-Country Effects of the Trade Policy Network

May 1, 2025

Publications

>

Early Access

No

Publicated to:Review Of International Economics. - 2025-04-18 (), DOI: 10.1111/roie.12797

Authors: Fernández-Amador O; Garcés I

Affiliations

Ctr Invest & Tecnol Agroalimentaria Aragon CITA, Dept Agrifood Econ, Zaragoza, Aragon, Spain - Author

Univ Bern, World Trade Inst, Bern, Switzerland - Author

Abstract

This paper derives a structural Melitz-type gravity model featuring heterogeneous trade cost elasticities to estimate indirect and modular effects of trade agreements in a large panel dataset. Indirect or third-country effects are heterogeneous and nest trade diversion and reverse trade diversion. Our results show considerable heterogeneity of trade effects of agreements depending on pair-specific variable and fixed costs. For a single agreement, indirect partial effects are small relative to direct partial effects. However, a counterfactual simulation of the effects of the global network of agreements over 1972-2017 highlights that aggregate trade diversion can be substantial, because of the large and increasing number of existing agreements. Other factors like agreement depth, comparative advantage and specialization patterns of members also condition the potential for trade diversion of trade agreements.

Keywords

CountriesDistanceEconomic integration agreementsEconomic-integration agreementsEnlargementEuFlowsGeographyGravityHeterogeneityImpactMarginMultilateral resistancesStructural gravity model of tradeThird-country effectsTrade diversioTrade diversion

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Review Of International Economics due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q2 (Segundo Cuartil), in the category . Notably, the journal is positioned en el Cuartil Q3 for the agency WoS (JCR) in the category Economics.

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Switzerland.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (Garcés Iriarte, Irene).

Indexed in

License and use

Citations

Altmetrics

Analysis of institutional authors

Share